嘉宾简介

Alan V. Deardorff教授是密歇根大学国际经济学教授和经济与公共政策教授。他于1971年在康奈尔大学获取经济学博士学位,从1970年起在密歇根大学任教。2007年开始担任Gerald R. Ford公共政策学院副主任,并曾在国务院、财政部、劳工部等很多美国政府机构及经合组织、联合国贸易与发展会议和世界银行等国际机构担任顾问。

主要观点
  • 贸易萎缩远比2008年严重
  • 全球供应链或永远无法恢复至疫情前状态
  • 常规政策在此次危机中的有效性尚不清晰
  • 全球化有压倒性优势,但趋势正在逐渐衰退
  • 政府不能凭直觉做决策
贸易萎缩远比2008年严重

金融界:此次疫情将会如何影响国际贸易?

Alan Deardorff:疫情仅在中国时,国际贸易就已经开始减少——工厂被关闭,产品不再出口。 随着疫情在全球范围内的爆发,同样的事情也在发生,停工继续扩大,因此贸易会继续萎缩,这可能比2008-2009年的衰退要严重得多。

 

金融界:此次疫情将会如何影响全球供应链?

Alan Deardorff:大部分贸易是通过全球供应链的投入和部分环节来运作的,即便供应链中的许多环节尚未中断,供应链也被打断了。那些仍在运营中的公司还在奋力寻找他们所需的、可代替资源,但是在当前的全球问题中,这很难实现。

全球供应链或永远无法恢复至疫情前状态

金融界:疫情结束后,我们的日常生活会出现什么变化?

Alan Deardorff:这很难讲,因为现代世界从未经历过这样的事情。虽然1918年的流感大流行在某些方面是类似的,但当时的世界和现在又有很大不同。这个问题的答案取决于疫情能否得到完全解决,还是无限期地、以较低水平威胁着人们。

不过,即便疫情得到了完全控制,家庭和企业也会重新思考此前的正常生活、运营模式。在这次疫情中,我们发现原来有这么多事务、工作可以远程完成,其中部分在疫情结束后会延续下去。旅游、出差等出行可能永远不会完全恢复了,因为从疫情中,我们了解到其必要性没有想象中重要。除此以外,制造商也会寻找在未来可以降低运营脆弱性的办法,如:在离本国更近的地方采购。但这将增加成本,并减少实际收入。

常规政策在此次危机中的有效性尚不清晰

金融界:一些中国经济学家认为此次疫情对经济的影响可以比肩大萧条时期,或2008年次贷危机时期。您怎么看待这个问题,几次危机有何异同?

Alan Deardorff:从经济角度来看,最大的不同是,目前GDP和就业率下降的主要原因来自供应方,而不是需求方。 企业之所以倒闭并不是因为销量下降,而是因为对工人来说存在着潜在危险。这与之前任何一次衰退都不同,属于未知领域。常规的政策是解决需求侧问题的,是否会对此次危机有效仍不清楚。中国经济学家的担忧是正确的,这场危机的规模很可能与大萧条相提并论。

全球化有压倒性优势,但趋势正在逐渐衰退

金融界:全球化的优势、劣势有什么?

Alan Deardorff:全球化的优势包括通过比较优势、规模经济实现专业化从而降低成本、提高生产力和技术、可提供更多消费品以及生产资料的选择,以上所有这些都为全球消费者带来了更高的实际收入。

而全球化的缺点包括当贸易发生变化(不论更好还是更坏),失业和流离失所的成本更高,而且社会制度还不足以帮助那些生活受到破坏的人。另外,当遭遇突发灾难,如流行病、地震、洪水等冲击,而导致供应或市场突然中断,运营的脆弱性凸显。同时,全球化也意味着承担更大的政策风险,如:贸易制裁、关税、出口税和禁令等。 

 

金融界:不少人都在担忧疫情或许会导致逆全球化进一步扩大,您怎么看待这个问题?如果真的发生了,我们能做什么?

Alan Deardorff:这确实是一个值得担忧的问题。在疫情爆发之前,就已经有迹象表明,如果没有措施制止,全球化在放缓——政策制定者,特别是特朗普,正在故意通过关税和其他政策破坏这一趋势。现在,疫情的出现造成部分全球化支持者也开始怀疑是否要如此高度依赖国外市场。

即使反全球化政策没有增加,我认为企业和消费者对其他国家的依赖都将有所减少,同时,即便在病毒消退之后,全球化措施也将继续减少。

这不好吗?我坚信,就生活水平而言,全球化已经对世界产生了压倒性优势,而我们需要承担的代价则是脆弱性的增加。

政府不能凭直觉做决策

金融界:对全球政策或投资者有什么建议吗?

Alan Deardorff:我的建议是,与过去三年的贸易政策相比,政府要以更加谨慎和周到的方式应对病毒及其经济影响。政府或许会有很好的决策指导世界经济渡过危机,并从当前的危机中复苏。但这些决策绝不是当权者根据其特别的直觉做出的无知选择。

采访原文

JRJ:How would Coronavirus affect the international trade?

Alan Deardorff:The virus began to reduce international trade already when it was only in China, as Chinese factories were shut down and their products then were not exported.  As the virus spread to the rest of the world, the same happened there and the shutdown continue to expand, so trade continues to shrink, probably much more than it did in the 2008-9 recession.

 

JRJ:How would Coronavirus affect the global supply chain?

Alan Deardorff:Much of that trade is of inputs and parts that work their way through global supply chains, and those chains are being interrupted even when many of the links in the chains have not yet been broken.  Firms that remain open are struggling to find alternative sources for what they need, but that is seldom successful in the midst of this global problem.

 

JRJ:How would Coronavirus affect our daily life after we finally defeat it?

Alan Deardorff:That is of course hard to know, as the modern world has never experienced anything like this before。  (The 1918 flu pandemic was like this in some ways, but the world, and daily life within it, were both much different then。) It also depends on whether the pandemic is fully resolved, or instead continues to endanger people at a lower level indefinitely。  But even if it is fully resolved, this experience will surely cause households and firms to rethink their normal practices。  Having found how much we can do remotely, some of that will surely continue。  Travel may never fully recover, as we learn from this that it is not as necessary as we thought。  And producers will look for ways to reduce their vulnerability to future interruptions, by sourcing closer to home。  But that will raise costs, and reduce real incomes。

 

JRJ:Some Chinese experts are comparing this crisis to the Great Depression and subprime mortgage crisis in 2008. What are the similarities and differences?

Alan Deardorff:The biggest difference, from an economic point of view, is that the cause of falling GDP and employment in this case is coming mostly from the side of supply, not demand.  Businesses are shutting down not because of reduced sales but because of danger to their workers.  This is different from any previous recession or depression, and therefore is uncharted territory.  The normal policies for fixing these are on the side of demand, and it’s not clear that those can help in this case.  The experts are certainly correct, however, that the size of this crisis is likely to be comparable to the Great Depression.

 

JRJ:What are the advantages and disadvantages of anti-globalization?

Alan Deardorff:Advantages include: reduced costs due to specialization by comparative advantage and economies of scale; improved productivity and technology; and access to greater choice in both consumer and producer goods.  All of these contribute to higher real incomes for consumers worldwide. 

Disadvantages include:  costs of unemployment and dislocation when trade changes (either up or down), and social systems are inadequate to assist those whose livelihoods are disrupted; vulnerability to sudden disruption of supplies or markets due to shocks like the virus, earthquakes, floods, etc.; exposure to pernicious policy changes targeted at vulnerable countries, such as trade sanctions and tariffs, export taxes and bans, etc.

 

JRJ:Many people are worried about that Coronavirus may promote anti-globalization. Is it possible from your perspective? And if it does happen, what should we do?

Alan Deardorff:I think they are right to worry.  Before the virus, there were already signs that globalization was slowing if not stopping, and policy makers – especially Trump – were deliberately undermining it with their tariffs and other policies.  The virus has prompted even some very pro-trade commentators to question the wisdom of such great reliance on foreign markets.  Even if anti-globalization policies do not increase, I expect that both firms and consumers will rely somewhat less on other countries, and our measures of globalization will stay reduced even after the virus has (hopefully) retreated.  Is this bad?  I strongly believe that globalization has been overwhelmingly beneficial for the world in terms of standards of living, but some cost may be worth bearing in order to reduce our vulnerability.

 

JRJ:Any advice for the governments and people all around the world?

Alan Deardorff:My advice would be to respond to the virus and its economic effects in a much more careful and thoughtful manner than has been the case with trade policy for the last three years。  There may well be very good reasons for governments to guide how the world economy deals with and then recovers from the current crisis, but those reasons will not be found by those in power making uninformed choices based on their idiosyncratic gut feelings。

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